Virginia Tech 2022 Blue Chip Ratio Update
It’s that time of year again. Every May, we update the Virginia Tech Blue Chip Ratio based on the current list.
To refresh your memory, the Blue Chip Ratio is a tool designed by Bud Elliott of 247sports.com. The premise is that to compete for a national championship, you need to recruit more top-notch prospects (four stars and five stars) than non-blue chip prospects (three stars and below) over a four-year period.
Since Bud started tracking this nationally, no team with a Blue Chip ratio below 50% has won the national championship. In other words, if you don’t have a Blue Chip ratio above 50%, you’re not a legitimate title contender.
And in today’s world, recruiting at a high level is more important than ever. Previously, recruiting was all about isolating against busts. You recruit 25 guys per season. You need enough depth in the class to overcome the inevitable busts.
Now? This is to insulate against busts AND transfers. The more talented players that stock your roster, the less damaging a surprise transfer becomes.
Let’s get that out of the way quickly: Virginia Tech is nowhere near that 50% mark. However, it’s still a good exercise to keep tabs on the Hokies trend.
And no, they are not going in the right direction. Here is Virginia Tech’s Blue Chip Ratio by year, since 2004:
If you go back further than 2004, the 247 database becomes very limited, so it’s hard to calculate.
Virginia Tech’s high water mark for the Blue Chip Ratio dates back to 2004 when Frank Beamer put up a roster with a 37.25% Blue Chip Ratio.
When justin fuente took over in 2016, it fell to 16.67%. That run to the ACC Championship in year one remains a pretty impressive feat.
After landing 19 top rookies from 2017-19, the Hokies Blue Chip Ratio was pretty good — 28.57% for the 2020 season. Obviously, that didn’t work.
Now, with just two top rookies signed in 2020 and 2021 and three in 2022, the Hokies currently have a Blue Chip ratio of 16.00%. This is probably Tech’s least talented roster, at least based on the Blue Chip Ratio, because before the Michael Vic time.
So yeah, Virginia Tech’s new head coach Brent Pry has a lot of work to do to rebuild this program.
The Hokies have five commits in the class of 2023 so far, and none of them are blue chips. As it stands, if the Hokies don’t sign a top prospect in this class, their ratio will drop to 5.88 percent next season.
Just to make some additional projections, if the Hokies draw the exact same class they did in 2022 – 3 blue chips and 21 non-blue chips – their Blue Chip Ratio will drop to 9.88% in 2023.
To eclipse Justin Fuente’s best Blue Chip Ratio roster (28.57% in 2020), Pry will need to land 21 top-notch prospects in the next three classes.
The magic number to get back to the contender for the national title remains around 8 or 9 blue chips per year. If you can do that over a four-year period, you’ll be approaching 50%.
Of course, these projections assume the Hokies sign a class of 25 high school prospects per year. In the age of the transfer portal, that might not happen anymore. How this affects the Blue Chip Ratio as a whole I leave to Bud to decide.
Before beginning to project the Hokies into the National Championship picture using the Blue Chip Ratio, Tech will first need to reclaim its place at the top of the Coastal Division and as one of the ACC’s premier programs.