The week ahead – Central bank chatter, economic data and geopolitics in brief
On the macro
It’s a quiet week ahead on the economic calendar, with 30 stats at the center of the week ending the 11thand February. The previous week, 76 statistics had been developed.
At the beginning of the week, the statistics are limited to December trade data which will have a moderate impact on the markets.
Thursday, the January figures on inflation and weekly jobless claims will however be decisive.
At the end of the week, we can also expect some sensitivity to the consumer sentiment numbers for February.
In the week ending 4and In February, the Dollar Spot Index slipped 1.84% to 95.485.
The German economy will be in focus in a quiet week on the economic data front.
Key statistics include industrial production and trade data due out Monday and Wednesday. With little else to consider for the markets, expect the numbers to influence.
From the ECB, the economic forecast to be released on Thursday will have a significant impact on the euro.
For the week, the euro jumped 2.67% to $1.1449.
For the pound:
It’s a relatively busy week ahead on the economic calendar. Industrial production, trade data and GDP figures are due out on Friday. Expect GDP and production numbers to be key.
Other statistics include housing sector figures which should have a moderate impact on the pound.
On the monetary policy front, BoE Governor Bailey could also change the dial in a speech scheduled for Thursday evening.
The pound rose 0.97% to end the week at $1.3531.
For the Loonie:
It’s a particularly quiet week ahead, with December trade data due out on Tuesday. With little else to consider for the markets, expect market risk sentiment and crude oil prices to influence as well.
On the monetary policy front, BoC Governor Macklem could influence Wednesday after last week’s disappointing data.
The Loonie ended the week up 0.10% at C$1.2757 against the US dollar.
From Asia Pacific
For the Australian dollar:
Business and consumer sentiment will be the focus on Tuesday and Wednesday. Both sets of numbers will need to reflect improved sentiment to support the Australian Dollar. Business investment and consumer spending remain key to the economic outlook.
The Australian dollar rose 1.20% to $0.7072.
For the kiwi dollar:
Mid-week, inflation expectations will be front and center ahead of Friday’s key statistics.
Business PMI and electronic card retail sales figures are due Friday. While the corporate PMI will have an influence, electronic card retail sales will likely have the biggest impact on the day.
The Kiwi Dollar ended the week up 1.30% at $0.6633.
For the Japanese yen:
It’s a quiet week ahead, with household spending figures expected. Although there is a lot of interest in the numbers, there is unlikely to be any impact on the Japanese Yen during the week.
The Japanese yen held steady at ¥115.260 against the US dollar.
Outside of China
In a calm week ahead, the Caixin Service and composite PMI numbers for January will be the main focus on Monday. After the disappointing NBS numbers, a sharp drop in the services PMI would test support for riskier assets.
Conversations from Russia and the United States will need to be followed along with any news from China and the Middle East.